Oklo Inc. (OKLO)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Oklo reported no revenue and a net loss of $9.96M for Q3 2024, with basic/diluted EPS of $(0.08); operating expenses rose to $12.28M, driven by R&D and G&A scaling .
• Cash and marketable securities stood at $288.5M at quarter-end, providing a strong liquidity runway while management maintained full-year operating loss guidance of $$40–50M and cash used in operations guidance of $$35–45M .
• Commercial momentum accelerated: total customer pipeline increased to 2,100 MW (+200% vs July 2023), including two new data center LOIs for up to 750 MW, a $25M prepayment tied to Equinix’s up to 500 MW PPA, and a 100 MW LOI with Prometheus Hyperscale .
• Regulatory progress and policy tailwinds: DOE approved the Conceptual Safety Design Report for the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility and issued an Environmental Compliance Permit for INL; management reiterated plans to submit the first COLA in H1 2025, targeting first operations in late 2027, with NRC proposals potentially accelerating subsequent approvals to ~7 months .
• Pricing signals for baseload nuclear power remain constructive, with recent industry deals “at or above $100/MWh,” supporting Oklo’s PPA discussions and unit economics .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Customer pipeline expanded to 2,100 MW, including two new data center LOIs for up to 750 MW; Equinix partnership includes a $25M prepayment for a future 20-year PPA, and Prometheus Hyperscale signed a 100 MW LOI .
• Regulatory milestones: DOE approved the Conceptual Safety Design Report for the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility and issued an Environmental Compliance Permit for the INL site, enabling characterization work and advancing toward construction .
• Management quotes validating demand/pricing: CEO highlighted “clear signals… for $100 or more/MWh,” reinforcing pricing power with hyperscalers; “Our approach empowers customers to scale sustainably… without the burden of managing the facilities themselves” .

What Went Wrong

• Loss widened year-over-year: Q3 2024 net loss of $9.96M vs $8.67M in Q3 2023; operating expenses rose to $12.28M from $4.66M, reflecting headcount growth and public-company costs .
• Non-cash volatility persists: YTD change in fair value of prior SAFE notes was a $29.92M loss before conversion at the business combination; deemed dividend accounting for earnout/founder shares impacted results for common stockholders .
• Share float expansion post lock-up triggers could weigh on trading: tradable float increased to ~137M shares after sponsor/insider unlocks and earnout share issuance events, introducing potential technical pressure despite fundamental progress .

Financial Results

Notes:

• Company is pre-revenue; statements present operating expenses and losses with no revenue line items .
• Prior quarter (Q2 2024) EPS was not disclosed in the available filings/transcripts we could fully access; trend commentary appears in Q2 slides (see KPIs table) .

KPIs and Operating Metrics

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “These deals have played an important role in establishing a price for baseload low-carbon electricity with some expected to be at or above $100 per megawatt hour, which supports our discussions with our current and future customers.” — Jacob Dewitte, CEO .
• “Oklo is differentiated… our business model is to build, own and operate our powerhouses and provide customers with what they want; reliable, low-carbon electrons.” — Jacob Dewitte .
• “We are targeting to submit our combined license application… next year… aiming for a review timeline of about 24 months once submitted.” — Jacob Dewitte .
• “Atomic Alchemy will create significant value… radioisotope technologies can significantly enhance the economics of nuclear fuel fabrication and recycling through co-product sales.” — CFO Craig Bealmear .
• “I deeply believe in the importance of abundance and reliable energy… the proposed acquisition of Atomic Alchemy opens the door for nuclear technology to play an even greater role…” — Sam Altman (Chairman) .

Q&A Highlights

• LOI-to-PPA conversion pacing: Management prioritizes “commercial term quality over speed,” leveraging clearer market pricing signals (~$100/MWh) and strategic partnerships before finalizing PPAs .
• Policy landscape: Bipartisan support expected to persist; regulatory modernization (IRA/ADVANCE) seen as accelerants; potential shifts could favor nuclear relative to other generation sources .
• Reactor sizing for hyperscalers: 50 MW modules align with modular data center build-outs and reliability requirements; roadmap includes >100 MW but sees sweet spot near current sizes for deployment economics .
• Atomic Alchemy revenue optionality: Near-term stand-alone isotope production capabilities and longer-term co-product revenues from recycling, with potential JV/customer partnerships in radiopharma and silicon doping .
• Licensing throughput: Multiple COLAs can be reviewed in parallel; NRC envisions subsequent licenses approved in as little as ~7 months, enabling fleet scale-up .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus estimates for Q3 2024 revenue and EPS were unavailable for retrieval at the time of this analysis due to SPGI request limitations (no data returned). As a result, we cannot assess beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus for the quarter.
• Given maintained 2024 guidance and expanding pipeline, future estimate revisions may focus on operating expense ramp, project timing milestones (COLA submission/review), and potential early PPA disclosures, rather than near-term revenue/EPS (company remains pre-revenue) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Regulatory momentum reduces timeline risk: DOE approvals and an Environmental Compliance Permit, plus NRC’s pathway for faster subsequent approvals, support Oklo’s late-2027 first-operations target and scalable licensing .
• Commercial traction: Pipeline grew to 2,100 MW with blue-chip data center interest and concrete LOIs; pricing at/above $100/MWh strengthens PPA economics and potential returns .
• Balance sheet strength: $288.5M in cash and marketable securities provides ample funding to advance licensing, site work, and early project execution while maintaining disciplined OpEx .
• Strategic optionality: Atomic Alchemy acquisition adds potential co-product revenue streams (radioisotopes, NTD for semiconductors), improving prospective fleet economics and diversification .
• Trading dynamics: Recent share unlocks raised tradable float to ~137M shares; near-term technical overhang possible despite fundamentals improving—monitor subsequent earnout issuance and insider activity .
• Execution watch items: COLA submission (H1 2025), ground-breaking target (as soon as 2026), data center PPAs, HALEU supply chain progress, and continued DOE/NRC milestones .
• Medium-term thesis: Build-own-operate model with repeatable small-scale reactors, improving policy tailwinds, and potential recycling-driven margin uplift positions Oklo as a differentiated leader for nuclear-powered AI/data center demand .

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Segment disclosure: Oklo operates in one segment (company-wide) .

Additional Financial Detail (YTD perspective)

Non-GAAP/Non-cash items:

• YTD fair value change of SAFEs: $(29.920)M, a non-cash remeasurement prior to conversion at business combination .
• Deemed dividend accounting related to earnout/founder shares impacted net loss attributable to common stockholders YTD .